Vox analysis: US economy shows resilience despite Trump policies
8 reported1 unconfirmed
A Vox analysis reports that the US economy has continued growing under President Donald Trump despite tariffs, immigration restrictions, and a conflict with Iran. The article states GDP rose at a 2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2026 and 2.1 percent in 2025, with unemployment at 4.3 percent and wages rising faster than inflation through 2025. However, real wages fell in May 2026 as annual inflation hit 3.8 percent. The analysis cites estimates from the Peterson Institute, Brookings Institution, and Federal Reserve suggesting that without Trump’s trade and immigration policies, growth could have been about 0.9 percentage points higher in 2025 and core inflation could have been 2.3 percent instead of 3.2 percent. The article notes that the AI boom and post-COVID supply chain normalization provided tailwinds, and that the Iran war’s economic impact remains unclear.
What’s reported
US GDP rose at 2 percent annual rate in Q1 2026 and 2.1 percent in 2025.
Unemployment rate is 4.3 percent.
Real wages fell in May 2026 as annual inflation hit 3.8 percent.
Peterson Institute estimates tariffs reduced 2025 growth by 0.23 percentage points.
Brookings Institution estimates immigration decline shaved up to 0.26 percentage points off GDP.
Dallas Federal Reserve analysis shows core inflation would have been 2.3 percent instead of 3.2 percent without tariffs.
Federal Reserve economists estimate a three-month Strait of Hormuz closure would add 0.35 points to headline inflation.
Non-AI business investment fell at 3 percent annualized rate over last four quarters.
Open questions
The precise impact of the Iran war on 2026 growth is unclear, as it depends on the conflict’s trajectory.
Key figures
President Donald Trump
Mike Ehrmantraut (fictional character referenced in analogy)
Sources: vox.com
