China consumer inflation slows, producer prices hit near 4-year high in June
10 reported
China’s consumer price growth weakened in June while wholesale inflation accelerated, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Consumer prices rose 1% year-on-year, missing economists’ expectations of 1.1% and slowing from 1.2% in May. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose 1%, edging down from 1.1% in May. Food prices fell 1.6% year-on-year, easing from a 1.7% decline in May. The producer price index jumped 4.1% year-on-year, in line with forecasts and outpacing May’s 3.9%, marking the strongest growth since July 2022. On a month-on-month basis, PPI declined 0.3%. Economists attributed the year-on-year PPI strength to a low-base effect, noting that oil prices are on an easing course and factories cannot fully pass on cost increases to downstream clients. The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.6%, up from 4.4%, citing robust high-tech manufacturing and export performance.
What’s reported
China’s consumer prices rose 1% in June year-on-year, missing the 1.1% forecast in a Reuters poll and slowing from 1.2% in May.
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 1% year-on-year in June, down from 1.1% in May.
Food prices declined 1.6% year-on-year in June, easing from a 1.7% fall in May.
The producer price index jumped 4.1% year-on-year in June, in line with forecasts and up from 3.9% in May, the strongest since July 2022.
On a month-on-month basis, PPI declined 0.3% in June.
Producer prices recorded their worst decline in almost two years in June 2025, falling 3.6% year-on-year.
PPI returned to growth in March 2026, helped by the Middle East conflict and demand for AI computing power.
China’s manufacturing activity expanded faster than expected in June, driven by external demand including AI-related tech.
The IMF raised its 2026 China growth forecast to 4.6% from 4.4%, while trimming global growth to 3%.
China has set a growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026.
Key figures
Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit
Neo Wang, China strategist at Evercore ISI
Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo
National Bureau of Statistics (China)
International Monetary Fund
Politburo of the Communist Party (24-member body)
Sources: CNBC
