UK prediction market growth uncertain as US boom faces regulatory questions
10 reported
A single-source report from The Guardian examines whether prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, which have surged in the US, could replicate that success in the UK. The article describes how a former RAF pilot used Polymarket’s live odds data to appear to predict World Cup match outcomes, exploiting a TV feed lag. In the US, these platforms have grown partly because they are regulated as financial trading products by the Commodities and Future Trading Commission, allowing them to operate in states like California and Texas where sports betting is not yet legalized. Registered prediction markets are estimated to have attracted at least $45bn in trading volumes during the World Cup, though analysts say actual stakes are closer to $5.6bn per month. In the UK, the Gambling Commission has stated prediction markets would need a gambling licence for sports trading, while the Financial Conduct Authority says betting on financial markets would be covered by an existing ban on binary options. The Guardian was able to set up an account with Polymarket using a VPN, despite the platform stating such access is against its terms of service. Experts are divided on whether prediction markets will catch fire in the UK, with some citing the lack of unmet demand for legal sports betting and others warning of risks to democracy.
What’s reported
Dode Dahroug, a 51-year-old former RAF pilot, used Polymarket’s live odds graph to appear to predict World Cup match outcomes because his TV feed lagged one to two minutes behind the platform’s data.
Polymarket and Kalshi are regulated as financial trading products by the US Commodities and Future Trading Commission, allowing them to operate in states without legal sports betting.
Registered prediction markets are estimated to have attracted at least $45bn in trading volumes during the World Cup, according to market data they publish.
Analysts at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimate actual World Cup stakes in the US are closer to $5.6bn (£4bn) a month.
The UK Gambling Commission has said prediction markets would need a gambling licence for sports trading; the Financial Conduct Authority says betting on financial markets would be covered by an existing ban on binary options.
The Guardian was able to set up an account with Polymarket using a VPN and deposit cryptocurrency to test betting on the World Cup and the chances of the US confirming the existence of aliens.
Polymarket said it takes compliance seriously and that using a VPN from the UK is against its terms of service; it said it is strengthening tools including on-chain monitoring and third-party compliance tools.
James Bradley of Fairer Finance expressed concern that UK customers are betting on these sites despite restrictions, and warned of risks to democracy from political betting.
Alun Bowden of Eilers & Krejcik Gaming said prediction markets are unlikely to catch fire in the UK because they are similar to betting exchanges like Betfair and face no unmet demand for legal sports betting.
Smaller UK operators easyBets and Smarkets have launched or redesigned their platforms to resemble US prediction markets.
Key figures
Dode Dahroug, 51-year-old former RAF pilot
James Bradley, consumer advocacy group Fairer Finance
Alun Bowden, gambling analyst at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming
Jason Trost, chief executive of Smarkets
Polymarket spokesperson (unnamed)
Sources: The Guardian
