U.S. Cattle Herd at 75-Year Low; Factors Include Costs, Drought, Screwworm
According to USDA data, the U.S. cattle herd stood at 86.2 million head on January 1, the smallest since 1951. Rising costs, drought, international competition, and industry consolidation have reduced livestock numbers, and fewer farmers and ranchers remain. Record-high cattle prices have prompted producers to sell animals without rebuilding herds. Beef production has stayed steady because cattle themselves are heavier than in past decades. A new screwworm infestation in Mexico led to a May 2025 ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, which supplied 62% of U.S. cattle imports between 2020 and 2024. The Trump administration increased beef imports from Argentina in February and directed a Justice Department investigation into four major meatpackers for possible collusion. Some producers are selling beef directly to consumers to bypass large processors.
What’s reported
The U.S. cattle herd (beef and dairy) was 86.2 million head on January 1, the lowest since 1951, per USDA.
Factors reducing herd size: rising costs, drought, international competition, and consolidation.
Cattle operations declined from 882,692 in 2017 to 732,123 five years later (roughly 17% drop), per USDA.
The New World screwworm was detected in Mexico, prompting a May 2025 ban on live cattle, horses, and bison imports from Mexico by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.
Mexico accounted for about 62% of U.S. cattle imports between 2020 and 2024, per USDA.
In November, President Trump directed the Justice Department to investigate JBS, Cargill, Tyson Foods, and National Beef for potential collusion, price fixing, and price manipulation.
In February, Trump quadrupled the amount of beef that can be imported from Argentina at a lower tariff.
The U.S. imported a record 4.64 billion pounds of beef in 2024, a roughly 24% increase over the previous year, per the White House.
U.S. beef production was 11.8 million metric tons in 2025, a slight uptick from 2005.
Finished cattle weigh 200 to 300 pounds more than in the 1950s, allowing same meat yield from fewer animals.
Key figures
Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA (cattle and sheep producers group)
Amanda Hall, farmer in Lexington, Kentucky
Reid Hall, farmer in Lexington, Kentucky
Jason Cleere, professor and extension beef cattle specialist at Texas A&M University
Scott Wilbeck, pet-funeral director and co-owner of two Texas cattle operations
President Trump
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins
Sources: NPR
