U.S. cattle herd at 75-year low, beef prices rise amid multiple pressures
10 reported
According to a report from NPR, the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its smallest size in 75 years, with 86.2 million head of cattle recorded on January 1, 2026, the lowest since 1951. The decline is attributed to rising costs, drought, international competition, and increased industry consolidation. Despite the smaller herd, U.S. beef production has remained stable because cattle are larger than in past decades. The report notes that a parasitic fly, the New World screwworm, has been detected in Mexico, leading to a ban on live cattle imports from Mexico in May 2025, which has further tightened domestic supply. Additionally, the meatpacking industry is highly consolidated, with four companies controlling over 80% of the market since 1995, prompting a Justice Department investigation into potential collusion. The Trump administration has also increased beef imports from Argentina to address surging prices, a move that some cattle producers criticize as benefiting meatpackers rather than lowering retail costs.
What’s reported
The U.S. cattle herd was 86.2 million head on January 1, 2026, the lowest since 1951.
Factors pushing livestock numbers down include rising costs, drought, international competition, and increased consolidation.
The number of cattle operations fell from 882,692 in 2017 to 732,123 five years later, a roughly 17% decline.
The New World screwworm, largely eradicated in the U.S., has been detected in Mexico, including one instance in September less than 70 miles from the U.S. border.
In May 2025, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins blocked all imports of live cattle, horses, and bison across the southern border with Mexico.
Mexico accounted for about 62% of U.S. cattle imports between 2020 and 2024.
Four companies (JBS, Cargill, Tyson Foods, National Beef) have accounted for more than 80% of the U.S. cattle-processing market since 1995.
In November, President Trump directed the Justice Department to investigate the top four meatpackers for potential collusion, price fixing, and price manipulation.
The U.S. imported a record 4.64 billion pounds of beef in 2024, a roughly 24% increase over the previous year.
The U.S. produced 11.8 million metric tons of beef and veal in 2025, up from 7.2 million metric tons in 1960.
Key figures
Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA and former cattle rancher
Amanda Hall, farmer in Lexington, Ky.
Reid Hall, farmer in Lexington, Ky.
Jason Cleere, professor and extension beef cattle specialist at Texas A&M University
Scott Wilbeck, pet-funeral director and co-owner of two Texas cattle operations
Brooke Rollins, Agriculture Secretary
President Trump
Sources: NPR
