Study projects doubling of US heat-related hospitalizations by 2040
10 reported
A new study published in the American Geophysical Union journal GeoHealth estimates that annual heat-related emergency department visits or hospitalizations in the US could rise from about 109,000 cases to as many as 237,000 cases by 2040. The research projects that annual healthcare costs for heat-related conditions will nearly double to more than $1 billion. The study examined 53 of the largest US metropolitan areas and projected heat-related illnesses under various emissions scenarios. Researchers found that the California and Las Vegas areas are expected to have the greatest total number of heat-related health problems, while regions unaccustomed to extreme heat, such as the northeast and Ohio valley, may suffer the most severe health consequences per major heat event. The study’s co-authors, Vivek Shandas of Portland State University and Stephan Brown of CAPA Strategies, noted that the impact will not fall evenly across the population. The article notes that severe heat already kills more people in the US each year than all other extreme weather events combined, with deaths rising more than 50% over the past two decades.
What’s reported
The study estimates heat-related hospitalizations will rise from about 109,000 to as many as 237,000 cases per year by 2040.
Annual healthcare costs for heat-related conditions are projected to nearly double to more than $1 billion.
The research was published in the American Geophysical Union journal GeoHealth.
The study looked at 53 of the largest US metropolitan areas under different emissions scenarios.
California and Las Vegas areas are expected to have the greatest total number of heat-related health problems.
The northeast and Ohio valley are expected to suffer the most severe health consequences per major heat event.
Severe heat kills more people in the US each year than all other extreme weather events combined, with deaths up more than 50% over the past two decades.
Illnesses and deaths are most likely among poorer people, those unable to afford air conditioning, outdoor workers, and those with pre-existing health conditions.
The US experienced its hottest March on record in 2026, and the summer is expected to have above-average temperatures and potentially widespread wildfires.
The average US household is expected to spend nearly $800 on electricity this summer, up more than 10% from last year, according to a report by NEADA and the Center for Energy Poverty and Climate.
Key figures
Vivek Shandas, professor at Portland State University and study co-author
Stephan Brown, of CAPA Strategies and study co-author
Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA)
Sources: The Guardian
