Prediction Market Philosophers Worry Sports Betting Undermines Their Goals
9 reported
According to a Wired report from the Manifest festival in Berkeley, California, prediction market enthusiasts who long advocated for the industry are now concerned that the rise of sports betting threatens their original vision. The festival, held at the rationalist movement’s Lighthaven compound, drew academics, startup founders, and job seekers. Attendees told Wired they see prediction markets as tools for truth-seeking and public good, but worry that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have become dominated by sports gambling. Dan Schwarz, CEO of FutureSearch, called sports betting “degenerate gambling” and said the apps are “straight-up predatory.” David Bensoussan, who has made $1.6 million in profits on Polymarket, questioned what sports have to do with making the population more informed. Some attendees suggested banning sports gambling entirely to preserve markets for world events, clinical trials, and insurance hedging. The article notes that Kalshi and Polymarket declined to comment on why they did not sponsor Manifest this year after doing so previously.
What’s reported
Manifest festival took place at Lighthaven in Berkeley, California, which also functions as the epicenter of the rationalist movement.
Kalshi and Polymarket sponsored the event in past years but were absent this year; both companies declined to comment on the change.
Sports betting accounts for roughly 80 percent of Kalshi’s trading volume and 39 percent of Polymarket’s since July 2024, according to the article.
Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick said the company’s sports trading volume was 53 percent for the week of June 8 and last over 60 percent the week of April 27.
Researchers writing in Science in April said prediction markets feature a “gambling-like design” raising “public health concerns” and could be used for “democratic manipulation.”
A recent wave of insider trading and state-level lawsuits are mentioned as risks to the industry.
David Bensoussan has made $1.6 million in profits on Polymarket.
Dan Schwarz previously launched Google’s internal prediction market.
Endpoints Arena offers prediction markets on clinical trial success rates but is not available for real-money trading in the US.
Key figures
Dan Schwarz, cofounder and CEO of FutureSearch
David Bensoussan, session organizer and Polymarket trader
Jacki McGavick, Kalshi spokesperson
Michael Fischer, founder of Endpoints Arena
Sources: Wired
