Economists warn ‘super’ El Niño could cause global food price shock into 2028
7 reported
Economists are warning that a "super" El Niño weather cycle this year could cause a severe shock to global food prices lasting into 2028, according to a report from The Guardian. The warning comes as the Iran war pushes world food prices to the highest level in three years, with supply chains facing "two shocks at once" stoked by extreme weather linked to global heating. Scientists have said the 2026-27 El Niño has a historically unprecedented chance of developing into a "very strong" event. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed last month there was a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2C above normal later this year. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted the strength of this El Niño could cause a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices, with the full effect potentially taking until the second half of 2028 to be "fully realised." The Italian bank UniCredit warned that price shocks could reach 10% to 50% across core commodities, with the most exposed crops rising by 50% to 100% or more.
What’s reported
Economists warn a "super" El Niño this year could cause a severe shock to global food prices lasting into 2028.
The Iran war is already pushing world food prices to the highest level in three years.
NOAA confirmed a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2C above normal later this year.
Goldman Sachs predicts a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices due to this El Niño.
Goldman Sachs said the full effect could take until the second half of 2028 to be "fully realised."
UniCredit warned price shocks could reach 10% to 50% across core commodities, with rice, palm oil, sugar and coffee rising 50% to 100% or more.
El Niño has already affected crops, driving a drier monsoon season in India with some regions receiving only 25% of usual rainfall.
Key figures
Analysts at Goldman Sachs (no specific names given)
Analysts at UniCredit (no specific names given)
Analysts at UBS (no specific names given)
Sources: The Guardian
