College graduates in 2026 face mixed economic signals but degree still valuable, data shows
A Vox article reports that while sentiment about college degrees has declined, data suggests the investment still pays off for most graduates. Polls cited in the article show 63 percent of voters said a college degree isn’t worth it, and 35 percent of Americans consider college “very important,” down from 75 percent in 2010. Recent graduates ages 22 to 27 had an unemployment rate of about 5.7 percent in early 2026, above the national average of 4.3 percent. Entry-level postings have fallen roughly 35 percent over the past 18 months. However, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis found a median return on investment of 12.5 percent for a college degree. College graduates earn a median of about $80,000 per year versus about $47,000 for high school graduates. The article notes that 80 percent of bachelor’s graduates in a 2026 Gallup poll called their degree critical or important to their careers, and 71 percent said they landed a good job within six months. Employer hiring plans for the class of 2026 are being revised upward.
What’s reported
In a late-2025 NBC News poll, 63 percent of voters said a college degree isn’t worth it.
A Gallup poll found 35 percent of Americans said college is “very important” in 2025, down from 75 percent in 2010.
Recent graduates ages 22 to 27 had an unemployment rate of about 5.7 percent in early 2026, above the national average of 4.3 percent.
Entry-level postings have fallen roughly 35 percent over the past 18 months.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York calculated a median return on investment in a college degree of 12.5 percent.
College graduates earn a median of around $80,000 per year, compared to around $47,000 for high school graduates.
Government data in 2024 put median weekly earnings for bachelor’s degree holders at $1,543 versus $930 for high school graduates.
A 2026 Gallup poll found about 80 percent of bachelor’s graduates called their degree critical or important to their careers, and 71 percent said they landed a good job within six months.
The class of 2001 had a college grad unemployment rate of 4 percent by December 2001; the class of 2010 had 7 percent unemployment.
Vanguard reports employment in highly AI-exposed occupations rose 1.7 percent between 2023 and 2025.
A Federal Reserve study this year of over one million firms found no clear connection between adopting AI and posting fewer jobs.
Employer hiring plans for the class of 2026 are being revised upward.
52 percent of graduates are underemployed a year out, and 45 percent are underemployed a decade later, per Burning Glass Institute and Strada.
Underemployment runs under 10 percent for nursing graduates and above 65 percent for criminal justice majors.
For Gen Z, one year at a state university cost 32 percent of the typical American family’s annual income in 2021, versus mid-20s for Gen X in the 1990s and 15 percent for Boomers in 1975.
Open questions
The article does not clarify how the upward revision in employer hiring plans for the class of 2026 compares to previous years or what specific industries are driving the increase.
Misconceptions
The article addresses the misconception that AI is causing widespread job loss for young graduates, citing data that employment in AI-exposed occupations rose 1.7 percent between 2023 and 2025 and that a Federal Reserve study found no clear connection between AI adoption and fewer job postings.
Key figures
Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO
Gloria Caulfield, real estate executive
Scott Borchetta, record label executive
Ronny Chieng, comedian
Bill Cosby, entertainer (mentioned as a 2001 commencement speaker)
Chris Pan, Ohio State speaker
Tom Kenny and Bill Fagerbakke, voice actors
No other specific individuals named in the source article.
Sources: vox.com
