Study: Reform UK support may plateau due to reliance on socially conservative views
A study led by psephologist John Curtice as part of the British Social Attitudes report found that Reform UK is becoming increasingly reliant on socially conservative views, which could limit further growth in support. The research indicates that while Reform supporters are more dissatisfied with politicians and public services, recent recruits were notably driven by ideological attitudes on issues such as diversity and welfare. Curtice stated that support for the party might plateau close to its current range in the mid- to high-20s, calling roughly 30% a likely ceiling given the party’s current political strategy. However, he noted that under the first-past-the-post system, this level could still be enough to win a general election. The survey of over 4,600 people across the UK found Reform supporters were more likely to be older, male, have fewer qualifications, and have voted for Brexit. Strong majorities of Reform supporters held negative views on migration’s impact on the economy and culture, and believed equal opportunities for transgender people had gone too far. The report concluded that the rise in new supporters since 2024 has been substantially driven by ideology rather than discontent with public services or personal finances.
What’s reported
The study is part of the British Social Attitudes report, led by John Curtice of the National Centre for Social Research.
Reform UK supporters are disproportionately unhappy with politicians and public services, but recent recruits had more robust attitudes on diversity and welfare.
Curtice said support might plateau in the mid- to high-20s, with 30% as a likely ceiling under the party’s current strategy.
He added that under first-past-the-post, this could still win a general election due to party fragmentation.
67% of Reform supporters believe migrants are bad for the economy; 75% think migrants undermine UK culture (vs. 33% and 35% nationally).
88% of Reform supporters say equal opportunities for transgender people have “gone too far” (vs. 48% nationally); 52% say the same for LGB people; 51% for black and Asian people.
The “interaction group” of people who are both authoritarian and dissatisfied had 46% support for Reform.
The rise in Reform support since 2024 has been driven more by ideological outlook than by unhappiness with the NHS or personal finances.
Just 9% of graduates back the party, against 40% of those with qualifications below A-level.
Key figures
John Curtice, psephologist and fellow of the National Centre for Social Research
Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK (mentioned as “Nigel Farage’s party”)
Keir Starmer, prime minister (mentioned as arguing improving services could counter populism)
Sources: The Guardian
