Study Links Latin America Fertility Decline to Women’s Education
6 reported
A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research examines the fertility transition in Latin America using a cohort perspective. The study, by Regina Calles and Tom Vogl, analyzes census microdata from 17 Latin American countries, tracking female birth cohorts from the 1920s to the 1970s by subnational region. The researchers found that across cohorts within subnational regions, children ever born fell one-for-one with mortality decline. Expansions in urbanization, multigenerational living, women’s and husbands’ education, women’s employment, and the non-agricultural sector all predicted declines in ever-born and surviving fertility. After adjusting for other factors, women’s education and sectoral composition were the dominant forces. The study also found that fertility decline was not systematically linked with improvements in children’s outcomes, including school enrollment, literacy, primary completion, and non-employment.
What’s reported
The study uses census microdata from 17 Latin American countries.
Female birth cohorts from the 1920s to the 1970s were tracked by subnational region.
Children ever born fell one-for-one with mortality decline across cohorts within subnational regions.
Expansions in urbanization, multigenerational living, women’s and husbands’ education, women’s employment, and the non-agricultural sector predicted declines in fertility.
After covariate adjustment, women’s education and sectoral composition were the dominant forces.
Fertility decline was not systematically linked with improvements in children’s outcomes.
Key figures
Regina Calles (author of the NBER working paper)
Tom Vogl (author of the NBER working paper)
Sources: marginalrevolution.com
