Study links iPhone diffusion to U.S. fertility decline
6 reported
A new paper examines the potential role of smartphone diffusion in the sustained decline of the U.S. general fertility rate, which has fallen by 22% since 2007. The study uses the iPhone’s initial exclusive sale on AT&T from June 2007 through February 2011 as a natural experiment, identifying its effect from variation in AT&T’s mobile broadband coverage. The analysis found that access to the iPhone reduced births by 4.5–8.0% among women aged 15–19 and 3.2–6.6% among those aged 20–24, with smaller declines among older cohorts. Placebo analyses using Verizon and Sprint’s pre-2011 coverage showed null results. The paper estimates that the iPhone’s diffusion explains 33–52% of the fertility decline among women aged 15–44. National-survey evidence on time use and sexual behavior is consistent with the iPhone reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency. The study notes it does not discriminate against the hypothesis that the iPhone effect on fertility is mainly a matter of timing.
What’s reported
The U.S. general fertility rate has fallen by 22% since 2007.
The iPhone was sold only on AT&T from June 2007 through February 2011.
Access to the iPhone reduced births by 4.5–8.0% at ages 15–19 and 3.2–6.6% at ages 20–24.
Placebo analyses for Verizon and Sprint’s pre-2011 coverage were null.
The iPhone’s diffusion explains 33–52% of the fertility decline among women aged 15–44.
National-survey evidence links the iPhone to reduced in-person interactions, increased pornography use, and reduced sexual frequency.
Sources: marginalrevolution.com
