Small Growth Increase Could Yield Trillion-Dollar Cumulative Gain
4 reported
A single year of slightly higher per capita economic growth could produce a trillion dollars in cumulative value, according to an article cited by Marginal Revolution. The piece notes that a one-time increase in per capita growth from 2% to 2.1% for one year, before dropping back to 2%, would permanently raise the level of GDP per capita. Because that small gain recurs and compounds every year across the population, it would add up to roughly a trillion dollars in cumulative value. The article also discusses the potential costs of pausing AI development, including lost cumulative value, persistent higher rates of absolute poverty, and needless deaths from delayed medical advances. It argues that the evidentiary bar for delaying technological development should be high.
What’s reported
A one-time increase in per capita growth from 2% to 2.1% for a single year, then dropping back to 2%, would permanently raise the level of GDP per capita.
That small gain would add up to roughly a trillion dollars in cumulative value.
Pausing AI development could result in lost cumulative value, higher rates of absolute poverty, and needless deaths from delayed medical advances.
The article states the evidentiary bar for delaying technological development should be high.
Sources: marginalrevolution.com
