Iran war fallout may fuel instability in distant nations, experts warn
8 reported2 unconfirmed
A Vox report examines how the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger political instability in countries far from the conflict. Protests have already broken out in several African nations due to fuel price increases linked to the war. Experts and humanitarian organizations anticipate that food prices will also rise substantially in the coming months, potentially leading to mass protests similar to the 2011 Arab Spring. The article notes that none of the recent protests were primarily against the war itself, but against local governments. The full impact on food supplies may not be felt for months, with some experts warning of a significant crisis in 2027. The report is based on a single source, Vox, and has not been cross-referenced with other outlets.
What’s reported
Protests have broken out in several African countries due to fuel price increases caused by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In Comoros, the government attempted to raise gasoline prices by 35 percent, leading to protests, roadblocks, and one death; the increase was suspended.
Four people were killed in Kenya in May in protests sparked by rising fuel prices.
Bus drivers in Maputo, Mozambique, went on strike over a 46 percent increase in diesel prices.
Nearly a third of global fertilizer trade normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warned the closure is “the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock” that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months.
The World Food Program anticipates an additional 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity if oil prices stay around $100 per barrel.
The World Food Program’s budget was cut by about 40 percent this year, largely due to cuts in US aid.
Open questions
When Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz.
The full extent of the food price shock and its long-term political consequences.
Key figures
Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Security and International Studies
Rabah Arezki, senior fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School
Rami Zurayk, professor of agriculture and food sciences at the American University of Beirut
Sources: vox.com
