Iran conflict’s global shockwaves fuel protests and food fears
8 reported2 unconfirmed
According to a Vox report, the war launched by the United States and Israel in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are causing economic shocks that have already sparked protests in several African countries. In Comoros, a government attempt to raise gasoline prices by 35 percent, citing the Iran war, led to protests, roadblocks, and one death, prompting the government to suspend the increase. Four people were killed in Kenya in May during protests over rising fuel prices, and bus drivers in Mozambique's capital went on strike over a 46 percent diesel price increase. Experts and humanitarian organizations warn that food prices will rise substantially in the coming months, as nearly a third of global fertilizer trade normally passes through the strait. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization called the closure the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months. The World Food Program anticipates that if oil prices stay around $100 per barrel, an additional 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity. The report notes that the United States and Israel are relatively insulated from the impact, while poor countries with no connection to the war are feeling the pain most acutely.
What’s reported
Comoros attempted to raise gasoline prices by 35 percent, blaming the Iran war; protests led to one death and the suspension of the increase.
Four people were killed in Kenya in May in protests over rising fuel prices.
Bus drivers in Maputo, Mozambique, went on strike over a 46 percent increase in diesel prices.
Nearly a third of global fertilizer trade normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization warned the closure is the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months.
The World Food Program anticipates an additional 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity if oil prices stay around $100 per barrel.
The World Food Program's budget was slashed by around 40 percent this year, largely due to cuts in US aid.
A recent paper in Science noted a "significant and sustained increase in conflict" following the Trump administration's USAID cuts in countries most dependent on that aid.
Open questions
When Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz.
The full extent of the impact on global food supplies and political stability in the coming months.
Key figures
Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Security and International Studies
Rabah Arezki, senior fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School
Rami Zurayk, professor of agriculture and food sciences at the American University of Beirut
Sources: vox.com
