Iran conflict’s economic fallout may fuel unrest in distant nations
8 reported
According to a Vox report, the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are causing fuel and food price shocks that have already sparked protests in several African countries, with experts warning of further instability. In Comoros, a government attempt to raise gasoline prices by 35 percent, attributed to the Iran war, led to protests, roadblocks, and one death, prompting the government to suspend the increase. Four people were killed in Kenya in May during protests over rising fuel prices, and bus drivers in Maputo, Mozambique, went on strike over a 46 percent increase in diesel prices. The report notes that none of these protests were primarily against the war or Iran, but against local governments. Experts cited in the article state that global food and fuel price spikes have historically been associated with mass protests, including the 2011 Arab Spring, and that the full impact of the strait's closure may not be felt for months, potentially creating a significant crisis in 2027.
What’s reported
Comoros, an island nation of less than 1 million people, is more than 3,000 miles from Iran.
The Comoros government attempted to raise gasoline prices by 35 percent, blaming the price shock caused by the Iran war.
Protests in Comoros included roadblocks in the capital and clashes with security forces, during which one person was killed.
Four people were killed in Kenya in May in protests sparked by rising fuel prices.
Bus drivers in Maputo, Mozambique, went on strike over a 46 percent increase in diesel prices.
Nearly a third of global fertilizer trade normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization warned the closure is "the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock" that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months.
The World Food Program anticipates that if oil prices stay around $100 per barrel through the end of the month, an additional 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity.
Key figures
Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Security and International Studies
Rabah Arezki, senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School
Rami Zurayk, professor of agriculture and food sciences at the American University of Beirut
Sources: vox.com
