India-Pakistan Arms Race Raises Concerns Over More Frequent Clashes
A ceasefire on May 10, 2025 ended last year’s brief missile exchange between India and Pakistan, and the agreement has held. However, both countries have spent the past year preparing for future conflict by expanding investment in drones, precision missiles, air defense, and surveillance technologies. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India’s military expenditure rose 8.9% in 2025 to $92.1 billion, while Pakistan’s defense budget grew 11% to $11.9 billion. Both are aiming to boost 2026-2027 budgets by 15.2% and 13.5% respectively. Experts say the buildup lowers the threshold for future confrontations between the nuclear-armed rivals. Last year’s conflict was triggered by a militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, marking the first use of long-range precision missiles and modern fighter jets by both sides, pushing warfare closer to civilian areas. Analysts warn that repeated low-level conflicts could become the new normal, and they note that hybrid warfare—combining rapidly evolving technology with unconventional attacks like disinformation—adds unpredictability.
What’s reported
The ceasefire ending last year’s missile exchange was signed on May 10, 2025 and has held.
India’s military expenditure rose 8.9% in 2025 to $92.1 billion, making it the world’s fifth-largest military spender.
Pakistan’s defense budget grew 11% in 2025 to $11.9 billion.
Both countries aim to increase their 2026-2027 military budgets by 15.2% (India) and 13.5% (Pakistan).
Last year’s conflict was triggered by a militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.
For the first time, both countries used long-range precision missiles and modern fighter jets in strikes near civilian areas.
Combat and surveillance drones flew over cities far from traditional front lines.
Both militaries used artificial intelligence to assist with surveillance and drone coordination, but there is no evidence of fully autonomous weapons.
Pakistan has strengthened defense ties with Turkey and China since the ceasefire, and this month received its first Hangor-class submarine from China.
India expanded defense cooperation with Israel, France, and Russia, and is in talks with Israel for an Iron Dome system called Mission Sudarshan Chakra.
Analysts do not believe either country is preparing for total war, but warn that low-level conflicts may become the new normal.
Open questions
Whether the assumption that limited conventional wars can be fought and contained under the nuclear threshold is correct, given the increasing role of hybrid warfare and rapidly evolving technology.
Key figures
Praveen Donthi, senior India analyst at the International Crisis Group
Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council
Amalendu Misra, professor of international politics at Lancaster University
Sources: csmonitor.com
