Brexit Costs Detailed in New Economic Analysis
The Story
According to an analysis cited by The Guardian, the economic cost of Brexit has been substantial, with a Stanford economist’s research indicating UK GDP per head is up to 8% lower than under a remain scenario. Speaking at the launch of his review into youth worklessness, former Labour cabinet minister Alan Milburn warned there are no easy solutions, arguing that one tax U-turn cannot fix a problem decades in the making. The article notes these comments come ahead of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum, which the piece describes as a populist silver-bullet solution that imposed permanent negative costs. The analysis by economist Nick Bloom and others for the US National Bureau of Economic Research shows investment is nearly 18% lower, employment up to 4% lower, and productivity up to 4% lower than projected under remain. The article also quotes former Bank of England policymaker Danny Blanchflower, who said the idea of rejoining the EU is far too simplistic and would require thousands of negotiators, though closer ties would be a good start. Milburn’s review highlights that youth unemployment and inactivity now exceeds 1 million, requiring a full system reset.
Key Facts
- Alan Milburn, former Labour cabinet minister, said: “Everybody goes for the bloody easy solution… There are no easy solutions, guys.”
- According to Stanford economist Nick Bloom and others in a paper for the US National Bureau of Economic Research, UK GDP per head is as much as 8% lower than under remain.
- Investment is close to 18% lower, employment as much as 4% lower, and productivity up to 4% lower than would have been under remain.
- Former Bank of England policymaker Danny Blanchflower said that rejoining the EU is “far too simplistic” and would require “thousands of negotiators.”
- Milburn’s review reports youth unemployment and inactivity has risen to more than 1 million, requiring a “system reset” covering schools, health, welfare, and jobs market.
- Blanchflower stated: “The moral of the tale on Brexit is simplicity, and a lack of experts, gets us into a big mess.”
Conflicting Reports
No conflicting reports identified in the source article.
Still Unclear
No open questions identified in the source article.
Misconceptions
No widespread misconceptions addressed in the source article.
Key Figures
- Alan Milburn – former Labour cabinet minister
- Nick Bloom – Stanford economist
- Danny Blanchflower – former Bank of England policymaker
- Nigel Farage – referenced as a political figure
Sources: The Guardian
