Aiming for ‘above average’ more effective than shooting for the moon, study finds
The Story
Researchers have developed a mathematical model suggesting that setting goals slightly above average leads to better outcomes than aiming for the very highest possible achievement. The model, described in Physical Review E, provides a mathematical basis for the conventional wisdom of not settling but also not chasing the unachievable.
Key Facts
- The model was created by Matt Burgess (economist at University of Wyoming), Kath Landgren (postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University), and Ryan Langendorf (theoretical ecologist at University of Colorado Boulder).
- In the model, agents search for rewards and have a threshold; offers below the threshold are rejected, those above are accepted.
- Optimal satisfaction came from setting the threshold above average, but not excessively so.
- Overambitious agents (threshold far above mean reward) fared worse on average than underambitious agents by the same margin.
- When rewards were erratic (e.g., flat hunting in a market of dream homes and hovels), it paid to be more ambitious than average.
- When agents had a distorted view of the world from seeing only highlights on social media, they became chronically dissatisfied and missed achievable rewards.
- The findings are published in Physical Review E.
- The late Norman Vincent Peale’s advice to “shoot for the moon” was described as needing tweaking; Landgren suggested aiming a little lower than the moon and ensuring the stars seen are real.
- Peter Ayton, director of the Centre for Decision Research at Leeds University Business School, noted that the model provides “thought-provoking insight” and cited a study of marathon runners where asking for a goal improved performance equivalent to a 13.5% increase in training.
Conflicting Reports
No conflicting reports identified in the source article.
Still Unclear
No open questions identified in the source article.
Misconceptions
No widespread misconceptions addressed in the source article.
Key Figures
- Matt Burgess, economist, University of Wyoming
- Kath Landgren, postdoctoral fellow, Stanford University
- Ryan Langendorf, theoretical ecologist, University of Colorado Boulder
- Peter Ayton, director of the Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School
- Norman Vincent Peale (deceased US clergyman, promoter of positive thinking)
Sources: The Guardian
