Study: Demographics explain two-thirds of marriage preference changes
9 reported
A recent paper by Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, Shannon Seitz, and Satoshi Tanaka finds that demographics account for two-thirds of cross-cohort differences in marriage preferences across U.S. birth cohorts from 1870, 1930, and 1950. The study exploits plausibly exogenous variation in sex ratios to jointly identify preferences, match quality dynamics, and the costs of marriage and divorce. Researchers report that women’s premium for older husbands collapsed across cohorts, while men’s preferences barely changed. The odds of a marriage surviving its early years fell from 97% to 44% across the studied cohorts. Divorce costs fell six-fold and depend on life stage. The paper concludes that the match quality process, not mate-age preferences, is the primary dimension of generational change, and that declining divorce costs and fragile match quality are substitutes revealing two independent dimensions of social change. The model was validated out of sample on the 1910 and 1970 cohorts.
What’s reported
Demographics explain two-thirds of cross-cohort differences in marriage preferences.
Study covers U.S. birth cohorts from 1870, 1930, and 1950.
Women’s premium for older husbands collapsed across cohorts.
Men’s preferences barely changed.
Odds of a marriage surviving its early years fell from 97% to 44%.
Divorce costs fell six-fold and depend on life stage.
Match quality process is the primary dimension of generational change.
Declining divorce costs and fragile match quality are substitutes.
Model validated out of sample on 1910 and 1970 cohorts.
Key figures
Jose-Victor Rios-Rull (paper author)
Shannon Seitz (paper author)
Satoshi Tanaka (paper author)
Samir Varma (credited with bringing the paper to attention)
Sources: marginalrevolution.com
