Brexit economic impact detailed in 10-year review charts
8 reported
A Guardian analysis published ahead of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote reports that the UK economy is significantly smaller than it would have been without leaving the EU, according to multiple experts and official forecasts. The immediate recession predicted by Treasury forecasts did not occur, but long-term assessments show trade has suffered, business investment and productivity growth have stalled, and families are on average thousands of pounds a year worse off. The pound has never returned above its pre-Brexit level, standing at $1.34 and €1.15 a decade later. UK GDP per head is between 6% and 8% lower than it would have been without Brexit, according to analysis by economist Nick Bloom and others. Trade barriers have slowed goods exports, while business investment is estimated to be close to 18% lower than under remain. Public support for Brexit has fallen, with 56% now backing rejoining the bloc outright, according to a YouGov poll.
What’s reported
The pound fell 10% on the day of the vote and has never returned above its pre-Brexit level; it now stands at $1.34 against the dollar and €1.15 against the euro.
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates the UK is on track to suffer a 4% hit to national income over a 15-year period.
Analysis by Nick Bloom and others shows UK GDP per head is between 6% and 8% lower than it would have been without Brexit.
Business investment is estimated to be close to 18% lower than it would have been under remain, and productivity up to 4% lower.
Average real wages are only £43 a week higher on average after taking inflation into account.
The number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training (Neet) has risen to more than a million, the highest since 2013.
A YouGov poll last month shows 56% of Britons would back rejoining the EU outright; 70% support a closer relationship without rejoining.
Net migration reached a record high of almost 1m in the year to June 2023, then fell to 171,000 last year.
Key figures
Charlie Bean, former Bank of England deputy governor
Nick Bloom, British economist at Stanford University
John Springford, Centre for European Reform
Nigel Farage, Reform UK leader (mentioned in context of vote night and polling)
George Osborne, former chancellor (mentioned in context of Treasury forecasts)
Sources: The Guardian
