Skepticism Raised Over iPhone-Fertility Decline Link
6 reported
A blog post from Marginal Revolution questions a study linking iPhone adoption to declining fertility rates in the United States. The post notes that in 2008, only 1.9% of the mobile-subscribing population had an iPhone wireless subscription, or 1.6% of all adults. By 2009, that figure rose to 4.3% of mobile subscribers and 3.6% of all adults, and in 2010 it reached 6.8% and 5.5% respectively. The author argues that fertility rates were already falling sharply in 2008, and that the time needed for conception, birth, and any social effects from iPhone use would create a lag. The post states that the study claims iPhone diffusion explains 33–52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among American women aged 15–44, but the author expresses confusion about how this mechanism could have operated given the low early adoption rates and limited iPhone capabilities at the time.
What’s reported
In 2008, 1.9% of the mobile-subscribing population had an iPhone wireless subscription, or 1.6% of all adults.
In 2009, iPhone adoption was 4.3% of mobile subscribers and 3.6% of all adults.
In 2010, iPhone adoption was 6.8% of mobile subscribers and 5.5% of all adults.
Fertility rates were already falling sharply in 2008.
The study claims iPhone diffusion explains 33–52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among American women aged 15–44.
The author states that explanations for the link seem to rely on intuitions from 2026, not the time period under consideration.
Key figures
Caitlin Myers (researcher, mentioned in a thread)
Noah (mentioned as providing additional analysis)
Sources: marginalrevolution.com
