CFTC seeks public input on regulating prediction market bets for reality TV and other events
6 verified7 unconfirmed2 contested
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that seeks to define “gaming” for the regulation of prediction markets, asking whether bets on reality shows, music competitions, and other entertainment programming should be allowed or banned. The proposed rules would prohibit event contracts based on terrorism, assassination, war, and gaming if they are found contrary to the public interest, while generally permitting sports bets. The CFTC’s request for comment follows concerns about insider trading on shows such as Survivor, where prediction market odds revealed the winner before the season aired. States have increasingly challenged prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing they circumvent state gambling regulations, leading to lawsuits and new legislation. The CFTC will accept public comment on the proposal over a 45-day period. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig stated the goal is to “protect the integrity of our regulated markets without standing in the way of responsible innovation.”
What’s verified
The CFTC published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking seeking public comment on its rules and definitions for prediction markets.
The proposed rules would ban event contracts based on terrorism, assassination, war, and gaming if found contrary to the public interest.
Sports bets are generally allowed under the proposed definition of gaming.
The CFTC acknowledged risks of insider trading in prediction markets, citing the reality show Survivor as an example where insiders may have profited from nonpublic information.
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig said the proposal aims to protect market integrity while allowing responsible innovation.
States have raised concerns that prediction markets bypass state gambling regulations, leading to lawsuits and legislation.
Where accounts differ
One source reports that the CFTC is asking for comment on whether reality show competitions should be considered gaming, indicating the agency has not yet taken a position. Another source reports that the CFTC would continue to permit gambling on the winner of Survivor under the proposed rules, suggesting a decision has been made.
One source states the CFTC explicitly said that award shows such as the Oscars and Grammys are not considered gaming. The other source does not address award shows.
Not yet confirmed
The CFTC’s proposal is 267 pages long, according to one source.
The public comment period is 45 days, per a single source.
Criticism from Better Markets director Benjamin Schiffrin, who called the CFTC the “prediction market industry’s biggest cheerleader,” comes from one source.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz signed a law banning prediction markets, and the CFTC sued to block it, according to one source.
Kalshi sued Utah and Governor Spencer Cox in anticipation of enforcement, per one source.
The American Gaming Association stated states have lost more than $1 billion in gambling tax revenues to online prediction markets, according to one source.
The CFTC currently has four vacancies on its five-person commission, according to one source.
Key figures
Michael S. Selig (CFTC Chairman)
Jeff Probst (Survivor host and executive producer)
Benjamin Schiffrin (Director of Securities Policy, Better Markets)
Bill Miller (President and CEO, American Gaming Association)
Tim Walz (Governor of Minnesota)
Spencer Cox (Governor of Utah)
Sources: The Hollywood Reporter, stateline.org
