Sub-Saharan Africa agricultural productivity shows stagnation
7 reported
A report from The Economist, cited by Marginal Revolution, indicates that agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa has shifted from gentle growth to stagnation, and possibly decline. Farmers in the region are growing nearly five times more cereals like maize and rice than in the 1960s, but most gains came from cultivating more land. The amount of arable land per person has been falling for decades and now sits at roughly the global average. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), cereal yields did not grow between 2020 and 2024, and total factor productivity (TFP) did not increase either. Most African countries had lower agricultural TFP in 2023 than a decade before. A 2024 paper by Douglas Gollin of Tufts University and co-authors, analyzing surveys of 55,000 household farms in six African countries from 2008 to 2019, estimated that yields and TFP for smallholdings were already falling by 3-4% a year then.
What’s reported
Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa are growing nearly five times more cereals than in the 1960s.
Most gains came from cultivating more land, which cannot continue indefinitely.
Arable land per person has been falling for decades and is now at roughly the global average.
Cereal yields did not grow between 2020 and 2024, according to FAO data.
Total factor productivity (TFP) did not grow between 2020 and 2024.
Most African countries had lower agricultural TFP in 2023 than a decade before.
A 2024 paper by Douglas Gollin and co-authors found yields and TFP for smallholdings were falling by 3-4% a year from 2008 to 2019.
Key figures
Douglas Gollin, Tufts University, Massachusetts (co-author of a 2024 paper)
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), a UN body
Sources: marginalrevolution.com
