Brexit warning against easy solutions 10 years on
According to a Guardian article marking nearly 10 years since the Brexit vote, former Labour cabinet minister Alan Milburn recently argued that there are no easy solutions to complex problems, a comment the article applies to Brexit. The article reports that the Leave campaign promised a simple fix for Britain’s ills, but instead Brexit imposed permanent negative costs on the economy. Citing an analysis by Stanford economist Nick Bloom and others for the US National Bureau of Economic Research, the article states UK GDP per head is as much as 8% lower than it would have been under Remain. The article notes that investment is nearly 18% lower, employment as much as 4% lower, and productivity up to 4% lower. It also discusses the unstable coalition of Brexit supporters and the difficulties of both the current UK-EU relationship and any potential rejoining process, with former Bank of England policymaker Danny Blanchflower warning that rejoining would be “far too simplistic.”
What’s reported
Alan Milburn, former Labour cabinet minister, said at a review launch: “Everybody goes for the bloody easy solution, don’t they? There are no easy solutions.”
The Guardian article describes Brexit as “the ultimate populist silver-bullet solution” that “opened a Pandora’s box.”
According to Nick Bloom and others in a paper for the US National Bureau of Economic Research, UK GDP per head is as much as 8% lower than it would have been under Remain.
Investment is close to 18% lower than it would have been under Remain, employment as much as 4% lower, and productivity up to 4% lower.
The article states the Leave coalition was unstable: libertarians wanted a Singapore-on-Thames model, but most Brexit voters were anti-globalist and wanted extra NHS funding, not tax cuts.
Danny Blanchflower, former Bank of England policymaker, is quoted saying: “The moral of the tale on Brexit is simplicity, and a lack of experts, gets us into a big mess.”
Milburn’s review highlights youth worklessness and inactivity rising to more than 1 million.
Conflicting accounts
The article notes that some Leave supporters argue Brexit was botched, but compares that to “real communism has never been tried” responses. It also describes a split between libertarian Brexit advocates and the broader anti-globalist electorate.
Open questions
The article does not specify what concrete terms or timeline might apply if Britain attempted to rejoin the EU. It also does not clarify how the political uncertainty from a potential Reform UK government would be resolved.
Misconceptions
The article addresses the misconception that Brexit was a simple solution to Britain’s problems, using Milburn’s argument that no easy solutions exist.
Key figures
Alan Milburn, former Labour cabinet minister
Nick Bloom, Stanford economist
Danny Blanchflower, former Bank of England policymaker
Nigel Farage (mentioned regarding the spectre of a Reform UK government)
Sources: The Guardian
