Kalshi defends status as prediction market amid World Cup betting surge
9 reported
According to a single-source report from NPR, Kalshi has set new trading records during the World Cup, taking in approximately $40 billion in sports wagers, compared to the $4 billion analysts expect online sportsbooks to log across all 104 matches. The disparity has fueled skepticism from sportsbook advocates over Kalshi’s position that it is not a sports gambling app. Kalshi argues it is a federally regulated financial product where bettors wager against each other rather than against “the house,” and it does not restrict bets or ban consistent winners. Sportsbook advocates and some state governments contend Kalshi has found a legal backdoor to avoid state gaming taxes and lower the betting age to 18. The question is at the center of more than 20 pending federal lawsuits, with billions of dollars of tax revenue at stake. Kalshi’s most popular wagers are sports-related, typically accounting for 80 to 90% of all bets placed on the site. The Trump administration has endorsed Kalshi’s argument, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed lawsuits against nine states attempting to regulate prediction markets.
What’s reported
Kalshi took in around $40 billion in sports wagers during the World Cup, according to Ticker Tracker.
Analysts expect online sportsbooks to log $4 billion in bets across all 104 matches.
Kalshi says it is a federally regulated financial product, not a sports betting site.
Kalshi does not restrict bets or ban consistent winners, according to spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana.
Sports account for 80 to 90% of all bets placed on Kalshi.
More than 20 pending federal lawsuits center on whether Kalshi is an unlicensed sportsbook.
Minnesota enacted a law in May banning prediction markets; Massachusetts and Michigan courts have restricted Kalshi; Arizona filed criminal charges.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed lawsuits against nine states over prediction market regulation.
Donald Trump Jr. has equity in Kalshi and Polymarket and is an advisor to each.
Key figures
Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi spokeswoman
Victor Matheson, economics professor at the College of the Holy Cross
David Forman, vice president of research at the American Gaming Association
Brad Allen, gambling industry analyst at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming
Danny Funt, author of “Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling”
Donald Trump Jr., son of President Trump, equity holder and advisor to Kalshi and Polymarket
Sources: NPR
