College graduates face tough job market but degree value holds
14 reported
A Vox article reports that while new college graduates in 2026 face a challenging job market and widespread pessimism about the value of a degree, data suggests a college education remains a worthwhile investment over the long term. The article notes that recent graduates ages 22 to 27 had an unemployment rate of about 5.7 percent in early 2026, above the national average of 4.3 percent, and that entry-level postings have fallen roughly 35 percent over the past 18 months. However, it cites a 2025 Federal Reserve Bank of New York study finding a median return on investment of 12.5 percent for a college degree. The article also compares the current situation to past difficult graduation years, such as 2001 and 2010, noting that recession scarring faded over time. It acknowledges concerns about AI affecting entry-level jobs but points to data from Vanguard and a Federal Reserve study that complicate the picture of a jobpocalypse. The article concludes that despite current difficulties, a college degree still puts graduates on a better path than skipping it.
What’s reported
A late-2025 NBC News poll found 63 percent of voters said a college degree isn’t worth it, against 33 percent who said it was.
A Gallup poll found the share of Americans saying college is “very important” fell to 35 percent in 2025, down from 75 percent in 2010.
Recent graduates ages 22 to 27 had an unemployment rate of about 5.7 percent in early 2026, above the national average of 4.3 percent.
Entry-level postings have fallen roughly 35 percent over the past 18 months.
A 2025 Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found a median return on investment in a college degree of 12.5 percent.
College graduates in recent years earned a median of around $80,000 a year, compared to around $47,000 for high school graduates.
A 2026 Gallup poll found about 80 percent of bachelor’s graduates call their degree critical or important to their careers, and 71 percent say they landed a good job within six months.
The class of 2010 had a 7 percent unemployment rate for recent college grads.
Goldman Sachs finds unemployment among 20- to 30-year-olds in tech-exposed roles is up nearly 3 percentage points since early 2025.
Vanguard reports employment in highly AI-exposed occupations rose 1.7 percent between 2023 and 2025.
A Federal Reserve study of more than a million firms found no clear connection between adopting AI and posting fewer jobs so far.
Tracking by the Burning Glass Institute and Strada finds 52 percent of graduates are underemployed a year out, and 45 percent are underemployed a decade later.
Underemployment runs under 10 percent for nursing graduates and above 65 percent for criminal justice majors.
For Gen Z, it cost 32 percent of the typical American family’s annual income to pay for one year at a state university in 2021.
Key figures
Chris Pan (commencement speaker at Ohio State)
Tom Kenny (commencement speaker at University of Vermont)
Bill Fagerbakke (commencement speaker at University of Vermont)
Bill Cosby (graduation speaker in 2001, later convicted of multiple counts of sexual assault, convictions later overturned)
Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO, speaker at University of Arizona)
Gloria Caulfield (real estate executive, speaker at University of Central Florida)
Scott Borchetta (record label honcho, speaker at Middle Tennessee State University)
Ronny Chieng (The Daily Show, speaker at Harvard)
Sources: vox.com
