New college grads face tough job market but degree still pays off, analysis finds
11 reported
A Vox analysis reports that while the job market for recent college graduates in 2026 is challenging, a college degree remains a strong long-term investment. The article cites a late-2025 NBC News poll showing 63 percent of voters believe a college degree is not worth it, and a Gallup poll indicating the share of Americans who say college is "very important" fell to 35 percent in 2025 from 75 percent in 2010. Recent graduates ages 22 to 27 had an unemployment rate of about 5.7 percent in early 2026, above the national average of 4.3 percent, and entry-level postings have fallen roughly 35 percent over the past 18 months. However, the article notes that a 2025 Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found a median return on investment of 12.5 percent for a college degree, and government data from 2024 shows median weekly earnings for bachelor's degree holders at $1,543 compared to $930 for high school graduates. The analysis compares the current situation to the classes of 2001 and 2010, which also faced difficult job markets but saw long-term benefits from their degrees. The article acknowledges concerns about AI's impact on entry-level jobs but cites conflicting data, including a Federal Reserve study finding no clear connection between AI adoption and fewer job postings.
What’s reported
A late-2025 NBC News poll found 63 percent of voters said a college degree isn't worth it, against 33 percent who said it was.
A Gallup poll found the share of Americans saying college is "very important" fell to 35 percent in 2025 from 75 percent in 2010.
Recent graduates ages 22 to 27 had an unemployment rate of about 5.7 percent in early 2026, above the national average of 4.3 percent.
Entry-level postings have fallen roughly 35 percent over the past 18 months.
A 2025 Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found a median return on investment of 12.5 percent for a college degree.
Government data in 2024 put median weekly earnings for bachelor's degree holders at $1,543, compared with $930 for high school graduates.
A 2026 Gallup poll found about 80 percent of bachelor's graduates call their degree critical or important to their careers, and 71 percent say they landed a good job within six months.
The class of 2010 had a 7 percent unemployment rate for recent college grads.
Goldman Sachs finds unemployment among 20- to 30-year-olds in tech-exposed roles is up nearly 3 percentage points since early 2025.
A Federal Reserve study this year of more than a million firms found no clear connection between adopting AI and posting fewer jobs so far.
Employer hiring plans for the class of 2026 are being revised upward.
Key figures
Chris Pan, commencement speaker at Ohio State
Tom Kenny and Bill Fagerbakke, commencement speakers at University of Vermont
Bill Cosby, graduation speaker in 2001
Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, speaker at University of Arizona
Gloria Caulfield, real estate executive, speaker at University of Central Florida
Scott Borchetta, record label honcho, speaker at Middle Tennessee State University
Ronny Chieng, The Daily Show comedian, speaker at Harvard
Sources: vox.com
