College graduates face tough 2026 job market but degree value holds
17 reported
A Vox article reports that while public confidence in the value of a college degree has fallen sharply, data suggests a degree still offers a strong return on investment for most graduates. Recent graduates ages 22 to 27 had an unemployment rate of about 5.7 percent in early 2026, above the national average of 4.3 percent, and entry-level postings have fallen roughly 35 percent over the past 18 months. However, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found a median return on investment of 12.5 percent for a college degree in 2025. A 2026 Gallup poll indicated about 80 percent of bachelor’s graduates call their degree critical or important to their careers, and 71 percent said they landed a good job within six months. The article notes that previous graduating classes, such as those in 2001 and 2010, faced worse unemployment rates but saw their economic scars largely fade over time. While AI-related fears add uncertainty, employer hiring plans for the class of 2026 are being revised upward.
What’s reported
A late-2025 NBC News poll found 63 percent of voters said a college degree isn’t worth it, against 33 percent who said it was.
A Gallup poll found the share of Americans who say college is “very important” fell to 35 percent in 2025, down from 75 percent in 2010.
Recent graduates ages 22 to 27 had an unemployment rate of about 5.7 percent in early 2026, above the national average of 4.3 percent.
Entry-level postings have fallen roughly 35 percent over the past 18 months.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported a median return on investment in a college degree of 12.5 percent in 2025.
College graduates in recent years earned a median of around $80,000 a year, compared to around $47,000 for high school graduates.
A 2026 Gallup poll found about 80 percent of bachelor’s graduates call their degree critical or important to their careers, and 71 percent said they landed a good job within six months.
The class of 2010 had a 7 percent unemployment rate for recent college grads.
Goldman Sachs found unemployment among 20- to 30-year-olds in tech-exposed roles is up nearly 3 percentage points since early 2025.
Stanford research counted a roughly 20 percent drop in employment for young software developers in highly automatable jobs.
Vanguard reports employment in highly AI-exposed occupations rose 1.7 percent between 2023 and 2025.
A Federal Reserve study of more than a million firms found no clear connection between adopting AI and posting fewer jobs so far.
Employer hiring plans for the class of 2026 are being revised upward.
Tracking by the Burning Glass Institute and Strada finds 52 percent of graduates are underemployed a year out, and 45 percent are underemployed a decade later.
Underemployment runs under 10 percent for nursing graduates and above 65 percent for criminal justice majors.
For Gen Z, it cost 32 percent of the typical American family’s annual income to pay for one year at a state university in 2021, compared to mid-20s for Gen X in the 1990s and 15 percent for Boomers in 1975.
Among 25- to 29-year-olds, the share holding a bachelor’s degree roughly doubled between 1980 and 2021, from about a fifth to nearly two in five.
Key figures
Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO
Gloria Caulfield, real estate executive
Scott Borchetta, record label honcho
Ronny Chieng, comedian and The Daily Show correspondent
Bill Cosby, former graduation speaker (convictions later overturned)
Sources: vox.com
